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Tropical Storm Lidia Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152023
900 PM MDT Tue Oct 03 2023
 
Lidia has changed little since the last advisory.  Last-light
geostationary satellite imagery showed a small, deep burst of
convection forming over the low-level center, with the majority of
the cold cloud tops in the northwestern portion of the circulation.
Subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates have held
steady this cycle, and the initial intensity remains at 35 kt.
 
The storm is moving northwestward at an estimated 6 kt.  A mid-level
ridge centered over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico should continue
to steer the storm generally northwestward for the next day or so.
By Thursday, Lidia should turn west-northwestward to westward along
the south side of the ridge as it builds westward.   While the model
guidance generally agrees on the turn westward, there is still quite
a bit of spread in the along-track speed.  The corrected consensus
aid, HCCA, favors a slower solution while the simple consensus aids,
TVCN and TVCE, show faster forward speeds and a progression farther
to the west.  The latest NHC track guidance is similar to the
previous advisory and favors the simple consensus aids.
 
Lidia is in an environment of moderate-to-strong easterly vertical
wind shear. Global models predict that these atmospheric conditions
should persist for the majority of the forecast period.  Still,
other conditions such as the warm sea surface temperatures and a
relatively moist surrounding airmass, should allow for some gradual
strengthening.  Only minor adjustments have been made to the
official intensity forecast, which is close to the consensus aid,
IVCN.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  04/0300Z 13.4N 107.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  04/1200Z 14.2N 108.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  05/0000Z 15.0N 108.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  05/1200Z 15.5N 109.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  06/0000Z 15.7N 109.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  06/1200Z 15.7N 110.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  07/0000Z 15.7N 111.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  08/0000Z 15.5N 112.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  09/0000Z 15.7N 114.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Bucci
 
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