ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Tropical Storm Lidia Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152023
300 PM MDT Tue Oct 03 2023
Lidia continues to exhibit a curved band on geostationary and
microwave satellite imagery this afternoon. Deep convection is
predominately developing to the west of the low-level center due to
the influence of moderate easterly vertical wind shear. The initial
intensity is held at 35 kt for this advisory in agreement with the
subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB, and the
objective intensity estimates, ADT and AiDT from UW-CIMSS.
The system is moving northwest at 320/7 kt around the southwestern
edge of a mid-level ridge located over Mexico. A mid- to upper-level
trough to the northwest will begin to weaken the ridge allowing
Lidia to move northwest to north-northwest during the next 48 hours.
Most models are now in agreement with a more westward motion in
Lidia between 48 and 72 hours. There are large differences in the
speed of the system, with the UKMET accelerating towards the west
faster than the other global models. The forward speed of the system
was adjusted slightly faster for this advisory in the short term,
and the track forecast is in line with the simple consensus aids.
Lidia is still battling some moderate easterly vertical wind shear.
The ECMWF/GFS SHIPS guidance depicts that moderate shear will remain
over the system throughout much of the forecast period despite
otherwise favorable environmental conditions. The guidance for RI
continues to lessen the probability with this cycle. The GFS, HWRF,
and SHIPS models still strengthen Lidia into a hurricane beyond 2
days, however much of the other guidance, including the HAFS models,
does not intensify Lidia as much. The NHC intensity forecast was
lowered slightly from the previous advisory and continues to show
gradual strengthening to a hurricane by day 5.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 03/2100Z 12.8N 107.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 13.7N 108.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 14.5N 108.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 05/0600Z 15.2N 109.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 05/1800Z 15.7N 109.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 06/0600Z 15.9N 110.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 06/1800Z 15.9N 111.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 07/1800Z 15.7N 112.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 08/1800Z 15.8N 114.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
$$
Forecaster Kelly/Stevenson
NNNN