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Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142023
500 AM HST Sun Sep 24 2023
There's been little change in the depression's cloud pattern since
yesterday evening. Recent microwave and first visible conventional
satellite images depict a sheared tropical cyclone with the surface
center well north of the shapeless deep convection. The intensity
is held at 30 kt for this advisory and is based on the TAFB and SAB
satellite intensity estimates.
Although the depression is expected to track over warm oceanic
surface temperatures during the next few days, increasing wind shear
and an intruding dry and stable air mass should prevent the cyclone
from strengthening through the forecast period. Therefore, the new
official intensity forecast no longer indicates a short-term
intensification period, and now shows the depression degenerating to
a remnant low early this week, as suggested by the statistical
SHIPS intensity models and the global guidance.
The depression's initial motion is estimated to be westward or
280/13 kt. A mid-level subtropical ridge extending from the Baja
California peninsula to the western tropical East Pacific should
steer the cyclone on a generally westward track through the 36-hour
period. Afterward, a turn toward the west-southwest is expected
while the vertically shallow depression moves through the low-level
tradewind flow through dissipation. The NHC forecast track is to
the right of the previous advisory due to the initial position
adjustment and lies between the HFIP HCCA and TVCE consensus
forecasts.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 24/1500Z 15.2N 123.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 15.2N 126.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 25/1200Z 15.1N 128.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 26/0000Z 14.7N 131.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 26/1200Z 14.1N 133.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 27/0000Z 13.3N 136.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 27/1200Z 12.6N 140.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 28/1200Z 10.8N 146.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Roberts
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