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Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142023
500 PM HST Sat Sep 23 2023
 
The depression has changed little since the last advisory.  Deep 
convection, with cold cloud tops below -80 degree C, have been 
forming near the estimated low-level center for the past several 
hours.  Microwave imagery still shows a curved band in the southern 
portion of the circulation.  The initial intensity is held at 30 kt, 
closest to the TAFB Dvorak classification.
 
Current atmospheric and oceanic conditions suggest the depression 
could strengthen during the next several days.  The majority of the 
guidance shows gradual strengthening, even with a low-to-moderate 
vertical wind shear environment.  As mentioned previously though, 
global models do not appear to be capturing the initial state of 
this system well, making the short-term forecast slightly less 
certain.  By day 2, the upper-level winds are expected to increase 
through the end of the forecast period which should limit 
intensification.  At 96 h, the cyclone should move into an area of 
higher wind shear and dry mid-level relative humidities which are 
expected to weaken the system into a post-tropical remnant low, and 
then open into a trough by day 5.   
 
The depression is moving westward at 13 kt.  A mid-level ridge 
centered over central Mexico should keep the cyclone on a general 
westward trajectory through the entire forecast period. The latest 
NHC track forecast shifted slightly south of the previous forecast 
and lies just north of the various consensus aids. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  24/0300Z 13.9N 121.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  24/1200Z 14.3N 123.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  25/0000Z 14.5N 126.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  25/1200Z 14.5N 129.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  26/0000Z 14.4N 131.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 60H  26/1200Z 14.0N 134.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  27/0000Z 13.6N 137.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  28/0000Z 13.1N 144.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  29/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Bucci
 
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