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Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142023
1100 AM HST Sat Sep 23 2023

An area of disturbed weather located well southwest of the southern 
tip of the Baja California peninsula became rapidly better organized 
this morning. SSMIS microwave imagery at 1427 UTC showed that deep 
convection had organized into a very well-defined band, with what 
appeared to be a developing low-level center just to the north of 
the convection. Since then, 1-minute visible GOES-18 has been very 
helpful in confirming the development of a well-defined surface 
circulation. Therefore, advisories have been initiated on Tropical 
Depression Fourteen-E. The initial maximum sustained wind estimate 
is highly uncertain, but is based on a 30 kt Dvorak current 
intensity analysis from TAFB.

The depression appears to be quite small, and is therefore not being 
well-resolved by most global models. The center of the cyclone 
appears to be just north of a tight band of deep convection. Its 
small size and an expected moderate shear environment could make the 
cyclone susceptible to rapid changes in intensity that are difficult 
to anticipate. The NHC intensity forecast is a little higher than 
the model consensus for the next 48 h, most similar to the DSHP 
model, but still shows only slight strengthening during that time 
frame. After about 72 h, wind shear is expected to increase quickly, 
which should cause the small cyclone to weaken. The system is 
subsequently expected to dissipate into a trough after about 4 days.

The initial motion estimate is west at 12 kt. An extensive ridge 
extending over most of the eastern North Pacific should keep the 
depression on a similar heading for the next 4 days until the system 
dissipates. Although the strength of the depression does not appear 
to be captured well by the global models, they do appear to have 
very reasonable track forecasts that are in good agreement with one 
another. The initial NHC track forecast is near the middle of the 
average-spread guidance envelope.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  23/2100Z 13.9N 120.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  24/0600Z 14.3N 122.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  24/1800Z 14.7N 125.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  25/0600Z 14.9N 127.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  25/1800Z 14.9N 130.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  26/0600Z 14.6N 133.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  26/1800Z 14.3N 136.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  27/1800Z 14.0N 142.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  28/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky
 
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