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Tropical Depression Kenneth Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132023
200 AM PDT Fri Sep 22 2023
Kenneth is just barely enough to be classified as a tropical
cyclone. Satellite imagery shows that the low-level center
continues to be exposed with waning convection displaced to the
north of the system. A recent scatterometer pass indicated that the
system is producing winds around 25-30 kt. Based on the
scatterometer pass, the intensity is lowered to 30 kt for this
advisory, which is also in good agreement with the latest TAFB
Dvorak intensity estimate.
The tropical depression is moving to the north at 9 kt. The system
will continue to move northward during the next day or two, around
a high pressure ridge centered over central Mexico. Towards the end
of the period, the remnant low will begin to move westward in the
low-level flow. There was little change to the previous forecast
track for this advisory.
Kenneth is in a fairly hostile environment with strong vertical wind
shear and cool sea surface temperatures. The system should continue
to gradually weaken in these unfavorable conditions. Kenneth is
forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low later today.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 22/0900Z 19.4N 126.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 22/1800Z 20.8N 125.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 23/0600Z 22.3N 125.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 23/1800Z 23.2N 126.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 24/0600Z 23.5N 127.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Kelly
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