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Tropical Storm Kenneth Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132023
800 PM PDT Thu Sep 21 2023
 
Kenneth is barely clinging to tropical cyclone status.  Satellite 
imagery shows an exposed low-level center with a small burst of deep 
convection displaced over 100 miles to its north.  The intensity is 
held at 35 kt, closest to the latest TAFB Dvorak estimate.
 
The tropical storm is still moving to the north-northwest at 6 kt.  
Track guidance suggests Nigel should turn northward soon in the flow 
around a high pressure system centered over central Mexico.  The 
latest official track forecast is similar to the previous advisory 
prediction.  Atmospheric and oceanic conditions are expected to 
remain hostile and therefore, Nigel should gradually weaken.  Global 
model simulate satellite imagery indicates there could be occasional 
bursts of convection near the center, but the system is still 
forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low in a day or so.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  22/0300Z 18.5N 125.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  22/1200Z 19.9N 126.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  23/0000Z 21.5N 125.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  23/1200Z 22.6N 125.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  24/0000Z 23.6N 126.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  24/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Bucci
 
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