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Tropical Storm Kenneth Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132023
800 AM PDT Wed Sep 20 2023
Kenneth's cloud pattern has become a little better organized since
yesterday evening. Conventional imagery and a recent AMSR2
microwave overpass show improved curved banding in the northern and
eastern semi-circles. Accordingly, the initial intensity is raised
to 45 kt for this advisory and is based on a blend of the
subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB.
Although not explicitly shown in the official intensity
forecast, there's a possibility that the storm could strengthen
a little more in the short term, but that small window of
opportunity appears to end tomorrow while deep-layer shear
increases along Kenneth's track. This inhibiting upper-level wind
pattern, along with decreasing oceanic surface temperatures and
an invading stable and dry lower boundary marine layer should
induce a weakening trend through dissipation in about 4 days.
Kenneth's anticipated turn toward the west-northwest has
occurred overnight, and the estimated motion is 290/9 kt around
the southwestern periphery of a subtropical high centered over
northwestern Mexico. On Thursday, the cyclone is forecast to
turn northwestward while moving between the above mentioned high
pressure and an approaching mid-tropospheric trough to its
northwest. The NHC track forecast is based primarily on the
HFIP HCCA corrected consensus and only a slight adjustment to the
right of the previous forecast was made beyond the 24-hour period.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 20/1500Z 15.2N 123.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 21/0000Z 15.6N 124.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 21/1200Z 16.2N 125.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 22/0000Z 17.4N 126.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 22/1200Z 18.9N 127.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 23/0000Z 20.2N 127.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 23/1200Z 20.7N 127.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Roberts
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