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Tropical Depression Twelve-E Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122023
500 AM HST Sat Sep 16 2023
The depression has generally changed little overnight and it remains
strongly sheared with deep convection confined to the eastern side
of the circulation. A partial ASCAT-C pass from a few hours ago
showed an area of 30 kt winds to the east of the center, and that is
the basis for the initial intensity.
The system is moving westward at 10 kt. A westward to
west-southwestward motion is expected in the low- to mid-level flow
during the next couple of days. The depression, or its remnant low,
is expected to move into the Central Pacific basin by tonight.
Strong shear and dry air will continue to affect the depression and
should ultimately cause the system to lose much of its deep
convection around the time it crosses into the Central Pacific, as
persistently forecast by the GFS and ECMWF models. Dissipation is
likely to occur in 36 to 48 hours.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 16/1500Z 14.5N 138.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 17/0000Z 14.2N 139.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 17/1200Z 13.8N 141.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 18/0000Z 13.3N 143.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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