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Tropical Depression Twelve-E Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122023
1100 PM HST Fri Sep 15 2023
The depression is producing short-lived bursts of deep convection
well to the east of its center this evening. Although this cloud
pattern lacks significant convective organization, it's been
sufficiently persistent to continue classifying the system as a
sheared tropical cyclone. The initial intensity is held at 25 kt,
consistent with the latest Dvorak satellite intensity estimates
from TAFB and SAB.
Despite marginally warm oceanic surface temperatures along the
depression's track, the cyclone is expected to continue struggling
with intrusions of dry and stable mid-level air from its surrounding
environment due to moderate westerly shear. Subsequently, the
depression is forecast to degenerate to a remnant low within the
next 24 hours or so. This forecast is similar to the previous
advisory and the latest GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite infrared
imagery. The global models indicate that the remnant low will
dissipate by Monday night far southeast of Hawaii, and the official
intensity forecast follows suit.
The depression's initial motion is estimated to be
west-southwestward, or 255/7 kt. This general motion south
of a strengthening low- to mid-tropospheric subtropical ridge should
continue through the depression's dissipation. The NHC forecast
track is nudged closer to the TVCE and HFIP HCCA consensus models
and is a little faster and to the south of the previous advisory.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 16/0900Z 14.5N 137.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 16/1800Z 14.3N 138.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 17/0600Z 13.9N 140.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 17/1800Z 13.5N 142.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Roberts
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