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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112023
2100 UTC MON SEP 04 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 104.2W AT 04/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  45 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 104.2W AT 04/2100Z
AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 103.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 12.8N 105.3W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 13.3N 106.7W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  70SE   0SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 13.9N 108.2W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  70SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 14.6N 110.2W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...140NE 150SE  80SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 15.5N 112.5W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE  90SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 16.5N 114.8W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE  90SW 130NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 19.0N 119.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 21.5N 124.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.5N 104.2W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY
 
 
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