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Tropical Storm Jova Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112023
200 AM PDT Sun Sep 10 2023
A shrinking area of fragmented convection is all that remains of
Jova's cloud pattern this morning. A 0525 UTC METOP-C scatterometer
pass revealed a couple of 35 kt winds in the northeast quadrant. In
the deference of undersampling, the initial intensity is lowered to
40 kt for this advisory.
A gradual spin down of Jova should continue through the period while
it remains over sub 23 degree Celsius SSTs. Consequently, Jova is
likely to degenerate into a remnant low by early Monday, or or as
soon as this evening, as suggested in the global model simulated
infrared guidance. No significant changes were made to the official
forecast and it's similar to the IVCN multi-model intensity
guidance.
Jova's initial motion is estimated to be northwestward or about
315/7 kt, on the southwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge
centered over the Baja California peninsula. As Jova degenerates to
a vertically shallow cyclone around the 24 hour period, it should
turn toward the west and west-southwest. The NHC forecast track is
basically an update of the previous advisory and is based on the
various consensus aids.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 10/0900Z 24.0N 126.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 10/1800Z 24.5N 127.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 11/0600Z 24.8N 128.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 11/1800Z 24.6N 129.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 12/0600Z 24.1N 130.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 12/1800Z 23.2N 132.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 13/0600Z 22.3N 134.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Roberts
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