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Tropical Storm Jova Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112023
200 PM PDT Sat Sep 09 2023
Jova's convection continues to dissipate this afternoon, with only a
few bursts in the inner core. Microwave imagery from SSMI/S depicts
decreased convective banding and the overall structure of the
system continues to deteriorate as well. A blend of subjective and
objective satellite intensity estimates suggest an intensity of 45
kt, which is the initial intensity for this advisory.
Jova is forecast to continue weakening for the next few days as the
system moves over cool sea surface temperatures, and into a stable
air mass. Simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF models
suggest Jova will be devoid of deep convection and become a remnant
low in about 36 hours, and this is reflected in the NHC intensity
forecast.
The initial motion is estimated to be northwestward at 8 kt. Jova
should continue to move generally toward the northwest around the
edge of a subtropical ridge during the next day or so. As Jova
weakens, the system is forecast to turn westward to
west-southwestward within the low-level flow through the end of the
forecast period. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous
forecast track.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 09/2100Z 22.9N 126.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 23.6N 127.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 10/1800Z 24.3N 127.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 11/0600Z 24.6N 128.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 11/1800Z 24.4N 129.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 12/0600Z 24.0N 130.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 12/1800Z 23.1N 133.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Kelly
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