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Hurricane Jova Discussion Number  18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112023
800 PM PDT Fri Sep 08 2023
 
Jova's steady decline has continued as the hurricane moves over 
cooler waters. Cloud tops have warmed, and the last hints of an eye 
have disappeared in all geostationary imagery. A blend of subjective 
and objective satellite intensity estimates supported an intensity 
of 70 kt at 00 UTC. The 65 kt advisory intensity assumes a little 
futher weakening has happened since then. Additional weakening will 
continue during the next few days, primarily due to the cool waters 
beneath Jova and a drying environment. Most models indicate that 
Jova will lose its deep convection and become a remnant low near or 
just after 60 h, which is reflected in the NHC intensity forecast.
 
The track forecast remains straightforward. For the next 2 days or 
so, Jova will continue moving generally northwestward, steered by a 
deep ridge that extends from the southwestern U.S. across the 
eastern 2/3 of the basin. As Jova loses its deep convection, it 
should slow down and turn westward, and then west-southwestward 
within low-level flow. Model guidance, both for track and intensity, 
is in very good agreement on Jova's evolution during the next few 
days and confidence in the forecast is high. No significant changes 
to the NHC forecast were required for this advisory.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  09/0300Z 21.1N 123.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  09/1200Z 22.0N 125.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  10/0000Z 23.3N 126.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  10/1200Z 24.3N 127.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  11/0000Z 24.8N 128.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  11/1200Z 24.8N 129.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  12/0000Z 24.5N 130.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  13/0000Z 23.5N 133.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  14/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky
 
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