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Hurricane Jova Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112023
800 AM PDT Thu Sep 07 2023
 
Infrared satellite imagery shows that cloud tops have warmed in the 
eyewall of Jova. An earlier SSMIS microwave passed depicts that Jova 
is starting to undergo an eyewall replacement cycle, with an outer 
concentric ring developing, and the inner core starting to collapse. 
In the past hour or so, hi-res GOES-18 1-minute imagery shows that 
the eye has become cloud filled, further confirming the microwave 
pass from earlier that Jova is undergoing an eyewall replacement 
cycle. The subjective and objective Dvorak estimates have decreased 
slightly with this advisory between 130-140 kt. Given the current
eyewall replacement cycle and warming cloud tops, the initial 
intensity for this advisory is 135 kt.
 
With the beginning stages of an eyewall replacement cycle, Jova 
may experience some short-term intensity fluctuations. The NHC 
forecast predicts slow weakening while Jova undergoes these changes. 
By the time the eyewall replacement is complete, Jova will 
start to cross a sharp sea surface temperature gradient into 
cooler waters, and into a drier, more stable airmass. By the end of 
the forecast period, simulated satellite imagery from the GFS model 
suggests the cyclone will be devoid of convection, and the official 
forecast shows Jova to be a post-tropical remnant low by day 5.
 
The hurricane continues to move west-northwestward at 14 kt around
the edge of a mid-level ridge centered over northern Mexico. The
ridge is expected to be the dominate steering feature during the
next few days and Jova should maintain the same general motion until
the end of the forecast period. At that point the weakening,
shallow vortex should turn westward in the low-level flow. The NHC
track forecast has been shifted slightly to the north between the
HCCA and TVCN consensus aids.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  07/1500Z 17.1N 115.7W  135 KT 155 MPH
 12H  08/0000Z 18.0N 117.7W  125 KT 145 MPH
 24H  08/1200Z 19.3N 120.4W  110 KT 125 MPH
 36H  09/0000Z 20.5N 123.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  09/1200Z 21.8N 125.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 60H  10/0000Z 23.1N 127.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  10/1200Z 24.2N 128.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  11/1200Z 25.4N 130.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  12/1200Z 25.3N 133.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly/Camposano
 
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