ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
Hurricane Jova Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112023
300 PM MDT Wed Sep 06 2023
 
Jova continues to rapidly intensify this afternoon. High-resolution 
1-minute GOES visible and infrared imagery depicts a strengthening 
major hurricane with a pinhole eye surrounded by very deep 
convection. As expected with a small eye forming, satellite 
intensity estimates have increased this afternoon to T6.0 from TAFB. 
Given the deep convection and small pinhole eye, the initial 
intensity for this advisory is set to 115 kt. Jova continues to 
rapidly intensify, with a 60-kt increase over the past 24 hours.
 
Environmental conditions continue to be conducive for rapid 
intensification (RI), with low vertical wind shear and warm sea 
surface temperatures along the forecast track.  Statistical models, 
DTOPS and SHIPS, continue to show high probabilities above the 
climatological mean for RI to continue during the next 12 to 24 
hours. Therefore, following these statistical models and RI 
probabilities, the peak intensity forecast has been raised to 135 
kt. After that time, hard-to-predict eyewall replacement cycles 
could cause some fluctuations in intensity. The intensity forecast 
lies above the consensus aids in the short term, given the favorable 
environmental conditions. In about 2 to 3 days, Jova is forecast to 
cross over much cooler SSTs and encounter some drier mid-level air, 
which should induce weakening.
 
Jova is moving a little bit faster with an initial motion of 
west-northwestward at 13 kt.  Jova is moving along the southern 
periphery of a mid-level ridge centered over northern Mexico.  The 
hurricane is expected to continue moving west-northwestward as it 
rounds the southwestern edge of the high through the forecast 
period.  The latest NHC track forecast is very similar to the 
previous advisory, except for a slightly faster forward speed. The 
forecast lies between the faster HCCA, and the TVCE consensus aids.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  06/2100Z 14.9N 111.7W  115 KT 130 MPH
 12H  07/0600Z 15.6N 113.7W  135 KT 155 MPH
 24H  07/1800Z 16.7N 116.3W  130 KT 150 MPH
 36H  08/0600Z 17.8N 118.9W  120 KT 140 MPH
 48H  08/1800Z 19.0N 121.6W  110 KT 125 MPH
 60H  09/0600Z 20.3N 124.2W   95 KT 110 MPH
 72H  09/1800Z 21.7N 126.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  10/1800Z 24.0N 129.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  11/1800Z 25.4N 133.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly
 
NNNN