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Hurricane Jova Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112023
300 AM MDT Wed Sep 06 2023
Jova continues to rapidly intensify. Infrared satellite imagery
shows that deep convection, with cloud tops colder than -90 degrees
C, has persisted over the estimated center overnight. Earlier
microwave imagery revealed a partial low- and mid-level eye-like
feature, still open to the north. Subjective and objective
satellite intensity estimates have risen since the last advisory and
the initial intensity is increased to 75 kt, in agreement with
the estimates from TAFB (T4.5/77 kt) and UW-CIMSS ADT (74 kt).
Environmental conditions seem to be quite conducive for
intensification and global model guidance suggests these conditions
will continue for the next couple of days. Deep-layer vertical wind
shear is expected to remain below 10 kt and sea surface temperatures
range between 28-29 degrees C along the forecast track. Statistical
models show extremely high probabilities of continued rapid
intensification and the official forecast explicitly predicts such
strengthening. The latest prediction now peaks Jova at 120 kt in 48
h. Cooling ocean waters and a dry, stable atmosphere should induce
a weakening trend by day 3, which is expected to continue through
the end of the forecast period.
Jova is moving west-northwestward at 8 kt. There have been no
changes to the track forecast reasoning. Jova is moving along the
southern periphery of a mid-level ridge centered over northern
Mexico. The hurricane is expected to maintain this motion with an
increase in forward speed as it rounds the southwestern edge of
the high. The latest NHC track forecast is quite similar to the
previous prediction, except for a slightly faster forward speed
favoring the corrected consensus aid, HCCA.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/0900Z 13.6N 109.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 14.3N 111.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 07/0600Z 15.2N 113.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 07/1800Z 16.2N 116.3W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 08/0600Z 17.4N 118.8W 120 KT 140 MPH
60H 08/1800Z 18.6N 121.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 09/0600Z 19.9N 123.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 10/0600Z 22.4N 128.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 11/0600Z 24.4N 131.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
$$
Forecaster Bucci
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