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Tropical Storm Jova Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112023
300 PM MDT Tue Sep 05 2023
 
Jova continues to look better organized on visible and infrared 
satellite imagery, with sharp curved banding on the south side of 
the system wrapping into the center. Deep convection has continued 
over the center with cold cloud tops near -80C. ASCAT and GMI 
microwave instruments both sampled Jova this afternoon, and 
indicated that the low-level center has redeveloped farther south 
than indicated in the previous advisory, under the burst of deep 
convection. The GMI 89-GHz microwave imagery depicted a mid-level 
eye-wall feature starting to develop. Dvorak estimates from TAFB and 
SAB were at T3.5 and T3.0, respectively, with this advisory, and 
objective ADT estimates were around 50 kt. Given the mid-level 
feature depicted on microwave imagery and the improved structure, 
the initial intensity leans toward the higher satellite estimates at 
55kt.
 
The initial motion is a little uncertain given the relocation of the 
low-level center, but an average motion is west-northwestward around 
8 kt.  Jova is forecast to continue on a general west-northwest 
motion the next several days along the southern side of a ridge 
extending westward over the southwestern United States.  The track 
guidance is in fairly good agreement, with the main differences 
being on the forward speed of Jova in the short term.  The NHC 
forecast is shifted slightly south of the previous one, given the 
re-formation of the center southward, and lies near the consensus 
aids.
 
Jova is in a favorable environment to rapidly intensify, with 
relatively low vertical wind shear, warm sea surface temperatures 
and moist mid-level RH values. The various model Rapid  
Intensification (RI) indices are quite high compared to the 
climatological mean, and the NHC forecast depicts rapid 
intensification. Jova is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane on 
Wednesday and into a major hurricane in about 36-48 h. The intensity 
forecast lies at the higher end of the guidance envelope given the 
favorable parameters and above climatological mean for RI, closest 
to the SHIPS guidance.  Later in the forecast period, the system is 
forecast to move over a sharp SST gradient with much cooler ocean 
temperatures inducing a weakening trend.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  05/2100Z 12.9N 108.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  06/0600Z 13.3N 109.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  06/1800Z 14.3N 111.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  07/0600Z 15.1N 114.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
 48H  07/1800Z 16.2N 116.5W  110 KT 125 MPH
 60H  08/0600Z 17.3N 118.9W  115 KT 130 MPH
 72H  08/1800Z 18.8N 121.4W  105 KT 120 MPH
 96H  09/1800Z 21.5N 126.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  10/1800Z 23.5N 130.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly/Blake
 
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