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Tropical Storm Jova Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112023
300 AM MDT Tue Sep 05 2023
Deep convection has increased near the center of the tropical
cyclone, with limited banding features surrounding the central
overcast. Upper-level outflow is increasing over the system,
although it is a bit restricted over the northern part of the
circulation. A subjective Dvorak satellite classification from
TAFB and objective ADT intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS support a
current intensity estimate of 35 kt for this advisory. Therefore,
the tropical cyclone is being named at this time.
The initial motion estimate, 280/10 kt, remains somewhat uncertain
because the center is still not easy to locate. However, the
steering scenario for Jova appears to be relatively
straightforward. The flow on the south side of a ridge extending
westward from a mid-tropospheric high over the southwestern U.S.
should push Jova on a mostly west-northwestward track for the next
several days. The track guidance models are in reasonably good
agreement, although there are some differences in the predicted
forward speeds. The NHC forecast is close to the previous one and
lies between the simple and corrected dynamical consensus solutions.
Over the next couple of days, Jova will be moving through an
environment that should be quite conducive for strengthening,
possibly at a rapid pace, with low shear, high humidities, and warm
SSTs. The various model Rapid Intensification (RI) indices show
greater than normal RI probabilities. Accordingly, the official
forecast shows intensity increases on the order of 20-25 kt per day
over the next 48 hours. Later in the forecast period, cooler ocean
waters will likely cause a weakening trend.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/0900Z 12.8N 106.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 13.1N 107.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 06/0600Z 13.7N 109.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 06/1800Z 14.5N 111.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 07/0600Z 15.4N 113.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 07/1800Z 16.5N 116.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 08/0600Z 17.8N 118.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 09/0600Z 20.4N 123.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 10/0600Z 22.5N 127.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
$$
Forecaster Pasch
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