ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
Tropical Depression Eleven-E Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112023
1000 PM CDT Mon Sep 04 2023
 
Microwave data and visible satellite imagery indicate the depression 
is producing small curved bands of convection tonight. More of the 
convective activity is occurring over the western portion of the 
circulation, likely due to modest easterly shear over the system. 
The bands are still somewhat fragmented, and the latest Dvorak 
classifications are T2.0/30 kt from SAB and T2.5/35 kt from TAFB. 
The initial intensity is held at 30 kt for this advisory, with 
scatterometer data later tonight hopefully providing more clarity on 
the system's location and intensity. 

The somewhat uncertain initial motion is westward (280/10 kt) as the 
cyclone is steered by a high pressure ridge to its north. This 
ridge, which extends westward from the southwestern U.S. across 
northern Mexico to the eastern Pacific, should remain the dominant 
steering feature during the next several days. The various track 
models generally agree on a west-northwestward motion through this 
week, although there are speed differences noted during the first 
few days of the forecast period, with the ECMWF faster than the GFS. 
The updated NHC forecast is somewhat faster than the previous 
prediction at most forecast times, and it generally lies between the 
simple consensus (TVCN) and HFIP corrected consensus (HCCA) aids. 

Environmental and oceanic conditions appear favorable for some 
significant intensification of the cyclone later this week. In the 
near term, modest strengthening is forecast while the cyclone 
becomes better organized and solidifies an inner core. Once this 
occurs, the system should be primed to take advantage of conducive 
conditions for strengthening. The deep-layer shear is forecast to be 
fairly low for the next several days, and the cyclone is forecast to 
move within a very moist and diffluent upper-level environment over 
very warm SSTs during the next 72-96 h. The rapid intensification 
(RI) indices, notably the SHIPS-RII and DTOPS, show a well above 
average (60 to 70 percent) chance of a 65-kt intensity increase 
during the next 72 h. Therefore, the NHC intensity forecast 
continues to explicitly show RI midweek, and the system is 
predicted to peak at major hurricane strength. This forecast lies 
between the IVCN/HCCA aids and the higher statistical-dynamical 
guidance SHIPS and LGEM. By days 4-5, some weakening is expected 
while the system moves over progressively cooler waters.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  05/0300Z 12.7N 105.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  05/1200Z 13.0N 106.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  06/0000Z 13.6N 107.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  06/1200Z 14.3N 110.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  07/0000Z 15.1N 112.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 60H  07/1200Z 16.1N 114.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  08/0000Z 17.4N 117.1W  100 KT 115 MPH
 96H  09/0000Z 20.0N 122.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  10/0000Z 22.5N 126.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
 
NNNN