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Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102023
500 PM HST Sat Aug 26 2023
 
Invest 92-E has become better organized this evening as a curved 
band of deep convection has become established along the low's 
southwestern semicircle. Additionally, a well-defined center has 
been observed in the GOES visible satellite imagery along the edge 
of the curved band. Thus advisories are being initiated on Tropical 
Depression Ten-E.

The initial intensity of 30 kt is based upon a blend of the TAFB and 
SAB subjective Dvorak fixes and is consistent with the scatterometer 
winds observed this afternoon.  While the system is currently 
located over quite warm waters with abundant moisture and low 
vertical wind shear, these conducive conditions will not last long.  
Along the projected forecast track, the sea-surface temperatures 
should lower below 26C as moisture decreases and convective 
instability diminishes in about 36 h. On days 4 to 5, the system 
should encounter even colder waters and drier conditions. Based on 
the above conditions, Ten-E is anticipated to only gradually 
intensify through 36 h, followed by gradual weakening until it is 
forecast to become a remnant low around day 4. The intensity 
forecast is based upon the a blend of the IVCN simple consensus and 
HFIP corrected consensus approaches, though none of the 
normally-reliable guidance suggests intensification to a hurricane 
for the system.

Currently, the tropical depression is moving toward the northwest at 
around 8 kt, though the initial motion is uncertain due to Ten-E's 
recent formation.  A longitudinally-extended mid-level ridge should 
continue the system's movement toward the northwest or 
west-northwest at a slightly faster forward speed for the next 
couple days.  As Ten-E begins to weaken, it should turn toward the 
west at a slower rate of speed while it gets steered by the 
low-level trades. There is significant along-track spread among 
the guidance. The GFS global model and HAFS-COAMPS hurricane models 
are substantially slower along the track, while the UKMET and ECMWF 
global models are substantially faster.  This forecast is most 
similar to the HFIP corrected consensus technique, which leans a bit 
toward the latter track solutions.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  27/0300Z 16.1N 118.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  27/1200Z 16.8N 119.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  28/0000Z 17.5N 121.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  28/1200Z 18.2N 124.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  29/0000Z 18.4N 126.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  29/1200Z 18.4N 129.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  30/0000Z 18.1N 132.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  31/0000Z 18.2N 137.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  01/0000Z 18.5N 140.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
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Forecaster Landsea
 
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