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Hurricane Hilary Intermediate Advisory Number 14A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092023
600 PM MDT Sat Aug 19 2023
 
...HEAVY RAINS SPREADING NORTHWARD OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA AND  
THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...
...CATASTROPHIC AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING LIKELY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 600 PM MDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.4N 114.2W
ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM SSE OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
ABOUT 600 MI...965 KM SSE OF SAN DIEGO CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California peninsula from Punta Abreojos to Cabo San Quintin
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Baja California peninsula north of Cabo San Quintin to Ensenada
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California peninsula from Punta Abreojos southward
* Baja California peninsula entire east coast
* Baja California peninsula north of Cabo San Quintin to the
California/Mexico border
* Mainland Mexico north of Guaymas
* California/Mexico border to Point Mugu
* Catalina Island
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Mainland Mexico from Huatabampito to Guaymas
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be completed.
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.
 
Interests elsewhere in the southwestern U.S. should monitor the
progress of Hilary.
 
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 PM MDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Hilary was located
near latitude 24.4 North, longitude 114.2 West. Hilary is moving
toward the north-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). The hurricane is
expected to accelerate as it moves north-northwestward to northward
during the next day or two. On the forecast track, the center of
Hilary will move close to the west-central coast of the Baja
California Peninsula tonight and Sunday morning then move across
southern California Sunday afternoon and Sunday night.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Continued weakening is expected, but Hilary will still be a
hurricane when it approaches the west coast of the Baja California
Peninsula tonight. Hilary is expected to weaken to a tropical storm 
before it reaches southern California.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 265
miles (425 km).  A sustained wind of 46 mph (74 km/h) and a gust of
58 mph (93 km/h) were recently reported at Loreto, Mexico.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 964 mb (28.47 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hilary can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP4.shtml.
 
RAINFALL:  Hilary is expected to produce storm total rainfall
amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum amounts up to 10
inches, across portions of the northern Baja California Peninsula
through Sunday night. Flash and urban flooding, locally
catastrophic, is expected, especially in the northern portions of
the peninsula.
 
Heavy rainfall is expected across the Southwestern United States,
peaking late tonight through Sunday night. Rainfall amounts of 3 to
6 inches, with isolated amounts of 10 inches, are expected across
portions of southern California and southern Nevada. Dangerous to
catastrophic flooding is expected.  Elsewhere across portions of the
Western United States, rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are
expected, resulting in localized significant flash flooding.
 
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area tonight and early Sunday and are possible within the
hurricane watch on Sunday.  Tropical storm conditions are occurring
within the southern portion of the tropical storm warning area and
will spread northward tonight and Sunday.  Tropical storm conditions
are possible within the tropical storm watch area through tonight.
Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in southern
California on Sunday.
 
Winds could be particularly strong and gusty in and near areas of
elevated terrain.  Higher gusts are expected well inland and will
persist even after the system becomes post-tropical.
 
STORM SURGE:  A dangerous storm surge is likely to produce coastal
flooding along the western Baja California peninsula of Mexico near
where the center passes the coast in areas of onshore winds, or
east of the center if Hilary makes landfall. The surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.  Coastal flooding is
possible along the northern coast of the Gulf of California Sunday
through early Monday.
 
TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur Sunday from mid-morning
through the evening over parts of the lower Colorado River Valley,
Mojave Desert, and Imperial Valley regions.
 
SURF:  Large swells generated by Hilary will affect portions of the
Baja California Peninsula and southern California over the next
couple of days.  These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your
local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Brown/Kelly
 
NNNN