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Hurricane Hilary Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092023
600 PM MDT Thu Aug 17 2023
 
...HILARY BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 600 PM MDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 109.5W
ABOUT 445 MI...715 KM S OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California Sur Mexico from Cabo San Lazaro southward
* Baja California Sur Mexico from Los Barriles southward
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Cabo San Lazaro to Punta Abreojos
* North of Los Barriles to Loreto
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere on the Baja California peninsula, along the
coast of northwestern mainland Mexico, and the southwestern United
States coastline should closely monitor the progress of Hilary.
Additional watches or warnings will likely be required for portions
of these areas later tonight and Friday.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 PM MDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Hilary was located
near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 109.5 West. Hilary is moving
toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through tonight.  A turn toward the
northwest is expected Friday morning, followed by a turn toward the
north-northwest and north on Saturday.  On the forecast track, the
center of Hilary will approach the Baja California peninsula over
the weekend.
 
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 120 mph (195 km/h) 
with higher gusts. This makes Hilary a category 3 hurricane on the 
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.  Additional rapid strengthening 
is forecast during the next day or so, and Hilary is likely to 
become a category 4 hurricane tomorrow.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275
miles (445 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 955 mb (28.20 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Hilary is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 6
inches, with isolated maximum amounts up to 10 inches, across
portions of the Baja California Peninsula through Sunday night.
Flash flooding, locally significant, will be possible.
 
Heavy rainfall in association with Hilary is expected to impact the
Southwestern United States from Friday through early next week,
peaking on Sunday and Monday. Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches,
with isolated amounts in excess of 8 inches, will be possible across
portions of southern California and southern Nevada.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area by late Friday, and are possible within the watch area by
early Saturday.
 
SURF:  Large swells generated by Hilary will affect portions of the
coast of southwestern Mexico and the Baja California peninsula over
the next few days.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Papin
 
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