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Hurricane Hilary Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092023
1200 PM MDT Thu Aug 17 2023
 
...HILARY NOW A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE...
...LIKELY TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE LATER TODAY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1200 PM MDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 108.4W
ABOUT 500 MI...805 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California Sur Mexico from Cabo San Lazaro southward
* Baja California Sur Mexico from Los Barriles southward
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Cabo San Lazaro to Puerto San Andresito
* North of Los Barriles to San Evaristo
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere on the Baja California peninsula and along the
coast of northwestern mainland Mexico should closely monitor the
progress of Hilary.  Additional watches or warnings will likely be
required for a portion of this area later today.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 PM MDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Hilary was
located near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 108.4 West.  Hilary is
moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through tonight.  A turn
toward the northwest is expected Friday morning, followed by a turn
toward the north-northwest and north on Saturday.  On the forecast
track, the center of Hilary will approach the Baja California
peninsula over the weekend.
 
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph (165 km/h) 
with higher gusts.  Additional rapid strengthening is forecast 
during the next day or so, and Hilary is likely to become a major 
hurricane later today.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275
miles (445 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb (28.50 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Hilary is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 6
inches, with isolated maximum amounts up to 10 inches, across
portions of the Baja California Peninsula through Sunday night.
Flash flooding, locally significant, will be possible.
 
Heavy rainfall in association with Hilary is expected to impact the
Southwestern United States from Friday through early next week,
peaking on Sunday and Monday.  Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches,
with isolated amounts in excess of 8 inches, will be possible across
portions of southern California and southern Nevada.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area by late Friday, and are possible within the watch area by
early Saturday.
 
SURF:  Large swells generated by Hilary will affect portions of the
coast of southwestern Mexico and the Baja California peninsula over
the next few days.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 
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