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BULLETIN
Hurricane Hilary Advisory Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092023
900 AM MDT Sat Aug 19 2023
 
...HILARY HEADED TOWARD THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...
...CATASTROPHIC AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING LIKELY OVER BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. THROUGH MONDAY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.3N 113.5W
ABOUT 235 MI...375 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 395 MI...630 KM SSE OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.97 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California peninsula from Punta Abreojos to Cabo San Quintin
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Baja California peninsula north of Cabo San Quintin to Ensenada
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California peninsula from Punta Abreojos southward
* Baja California peninsula entire east coast
* Baja California peninsula north of Cabo San Quintin to the
California/Mexico border
* Mainland Mexico north of Guaymas
* California/Mexico border to Point Mugu
* Catalina Island
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Mainland Mexico from Huatabampito to Guaymas
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere in the southwestern U.S. should monitor the
progress of Hilary.
 
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Hilary was located
near latitude 22.3 North, longitude 113.5 West. Hilary is moving
toward the north-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). The hurricane is 
expected to accelerate as it moves north-northwestward to northward 
during the next day or two. On the forecast track, the center of 
Hilary will move close to the west-central coast of the Baja 
California Peninsula tonight and Sunday morning then move across 
southern California Sunday afternoon and Sunday night.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Hilary is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Weakening is expected, but Hilary will still 
be a hurricane when it approaches the west coast of the Baja 
California Peninsula. Hilary is expected to weaken to a tropical 
storm before it reaches southern California.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (85 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 265 miles
(425 km).  A sustained wind of 44 mph (70 km/h) and a gust to
63 mph (102 km/h) were recently reported at the Cabo San Lucas
Marina.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 947 mb (27.97 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hilary can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP4.shtml.
 
RAINFALL:  Hilary is expected to produce storm total rainfall 
amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum amounts up to 10 
inches, across portions of the northern Baja California Peninsula 
through Sunday night. Flash and urban flooding, locally 
catastrophic, is expected, especially in the northern portions of 
the peninsula.

Heavy rainfall is expected across the Southwestern United States, 
peaking late tonight through Sunday night. Rainfall amounts of 3 to 
6 inches, with isolated amounts of 10 inches, are expected across 
portions of southern California and southern Nevada. Dangerous to 
catastrophic flooding is expected.  Elsewhere across portions of the 
Western United States, rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are 
expected, resulting in localized, some significant, flash flooding.
 
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area tonight and early Sunday and are possible within the
hurricane watch on Sunday.  Tropical storm conditions are occurring
within the southern portion of the tropical storm warning area and
will spread northward today and Sunday.  Tropical storm conditions
are possible within the tropical storm watch area through tonight.
Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in southern 
California Sunday afternoon.
 
Winds could be particularly strong and gusty in and near areas of
elevated terrain.  Higher gusts are expected well inland near and 
along the forecast track.
 
STORM SURGE:  A dangerous storm surge is likely to produce coastal
flooding along the western Baja California peninsula of Mexico near
where the center passes the coast in areas of onshore winds, or
east of the center if Hilary makes landfall. The surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.  Coastal flooding is 
possible along the northern coast of the Gulf of California Sunday 
through early Monday.
 
TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur Sunday from mid-morning 
through the evening over parts of the lower Colorado River Valley, 
Mojave Desert, and Imperial Valley regions.
 
SURF:  Large swells generated by Hilary will affect portions of the 
Baja California Peninsula and southern California over the next 
couple of days.  These swells are likely to cause life-threatening 
surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your 
local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
 
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