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BULLETIN
Hurricane Hilary Advisory Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092023
900 PM MDT Thu Aug 17 2023
 
...HILARY CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY...
...HURRICANE WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 110.0W
ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM S OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.12 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch on the west
coast of the Baja California peninsula north of Punta Abreojos to
Punta Eugenia, and has extended the Tropical Storm Watch northward
on the east of the Baja California peninsula to Bahia San Juan
Bautista.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Baja California Sur North of Punta Abreojos to Punta Eugenia
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California Sur from Cabo San Lazaro southward
* Baja California Sur from Los Barriles southward
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Baja California Sur North of Cabo San Lazaro to Punta Abreojos
* Baja California Sur North of Los Barriles to Bahia San Juan 
Bautista
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere on the Baja California peninsula, along the
coast of northwestern mainland Mexico, and the southwestern United
States coastline should closely monitor the progress of Hilary.
Additional watches or warnings will likely be required for portions
of these areas on Friday.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Hilary was located 
near latitude 16.7 North, longitude 110.0 West. Hilary is moving 
toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward the 
northwest is expected to begin tomorrow morning, followed by a turn 
toward the north-northwest and north on Saturday.  On the forecast 
track, the center of Hilary will approach the Baja California 
peninsula over the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 125 mph (205 km/h) 
with higher gusts.  Hilary is a category 3 hurricane on the 
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Rapid intensification is 
expected to continue through tomorrow morning, and Hilary is likely 
to become a category 4 hurricane. Hilary should then begin to weaken 
on Saturday. 
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 290 miles
(465 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 952 mb (28.12 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Hilary is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 6
inches, with isolated maximum amounts up to 10 inches, across
portions of the Baja California Peninsula through Sunday night.
Flash flooding, locally significant, will be possible.

Heavy rainfall in association with Hilary is expected to impact the 
Southwestern United States from Friday through early next week, 
peaking on Sunday and Monday. Rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches, 
with isolated amounts of 10 inches, will be possible across portions 
of southern California and southern Nevada. Elsewhere across western 
Arizona, southwest Utah, central Nevada, and central California, 
rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch 
area by Saturday night or Sunday morning, with tropical storm 
conditions possible by Saturday.  Tropical storm conditions are 
expected within the warning area by late Friday, and are possible 
within the watch area by early Saturday.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge could produce coastal flooding along the 
western Baja California peninsula of Mexico near where the center 
passes the coast in areas of onshore winds, or east of the center if 
Hilary makes landfall. The surge will be accompanied by large and 
destructive waves.
 
SURF:  Large swells generated by Hilary will affect portions of the
coast of southwestern Mexico and the Baja California peninsula over
the next few days.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Papin
 
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