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HURRICANE HILARY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092023
1500 UTC FRI AUG 18 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 111.4W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  939 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE  40SE  25SW  35NW.
50 KT....... 80NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT.......250NE 170SE  90SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 360SE 240SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 111.4W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 111.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 19.2N 112.5W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
50 KT...100NE  70SE  50SW  70NW.
34 KT...250NE 180SE 120SW 160NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 21.3N 113.6W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 45NE  45SE  35SW  45NW.
50 KT...100NE  80SE  70SW  80NW.
34 KT...240NE 180SE 140SW 170NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 23.7N 114.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  35NW.
50 KT... 90NE  80SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...230NE 180SE 140SW 160NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 26.8N 115.2W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 80NE  70SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...220NE 180SE 120SW 140NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 30.4N 116.4W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  30SW  20NW.
34 KT...200NE 180SE  90SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 35.2N 117.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 150SE   0SW  40NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 111.4W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 18/1800Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
 
 
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