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HURRICANE HILARY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092023
1500 UTC THU AUG 17 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 107.8W AT 17/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT  12 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  75 KT WITH GUSTS TO  90 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE  40SE   0SW  30NW.
50 KT.......100NE  80SE  30SW  60NW.
34 KT.......240NE 180SE 100SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 150SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 107.8W AT 17/1500Z
AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 107.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 16.4N 109.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  40SE   0SW  30NW.
50 KT...100NE  80SE  30SW  70NW.
34 KT...240NE 180SE 120SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 17.6N 111.2W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT...100NE  80SE  40SW  70NW.
34 KT...250NE 220SE 120SW 170NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 19.3N 112.7W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT...100NE  90SE  50SW  70NW.
34 KT...250NE 230SE 140SW 180NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 21.2N 113.7W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT...250NE 220SE 150SW 180NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 23.6N 114.4W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT...100NE 100SE  70SW  80NW.
34 KT...250NE 220SE 160SW 180NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 26.6N 115.0W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT...100NE 100SE  70SW  70NW.
34 KT...250NE 220SE 140SW 160NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 33.4N 116.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 41.0N 119.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 107.8W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 17/1800Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH 
 
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