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TROPICAL STORM HILARY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092023
0900 UTC THU AUG 17 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 106.3W AT 17/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT  11 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE  80SE   0SW  60NW.
34 KT.......240NE 180SE 100SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 270SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 106.3W AT 17/0900Z
AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 105.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 15.5N 108.0W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 70NE  80SE  30SW  70NW.
34 KT...240NE 180SE 120SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 16.7N 110.1W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  40SW  70NW.
34 KT...250NE 220SE 120SW 170NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 18.1N 111.7W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT...100NE  90SE  50SW  70NW.
34 KT...250NE 230SE 140SW 180NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 19.9N 113.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT...250NE 220SE 150SW 180NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 22.0N 113.8W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT...100NE 100SE  70SW  80NW.
34 KT...250NE 220SE 160SW 180NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 24.6N 114.3W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT...100NE 100SE  70SW  70NW.
34 KT...250NE 220SE 140SW 160NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 31.6N 116.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 39.1N 118.6W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.6N 106.3W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 17/1200Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 
 
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