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TROPICAL STORM HILARY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092023
0300 UTC THU AUG 17 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 105.1W AT 17/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT.......180NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 240SE 105SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 105.1W AT 17/0300Z
AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 104.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 14.3N 106.9W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.
34 KT...190NE 170SE 120SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 15.5N 109.1W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE   0SW  55NW.
34 KT...210NE 210SE 130SW 170NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 16.8N 111.0W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  35NW.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...210NE 220SE 130SW 160NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 18.5N 112.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  35SE  30SW  35NW.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...230NE 220SE 140SW 170NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 20.5N 113.4W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT...100NE  90SE  70SW  80NW.
34 KT...220NE 220SE 150SW 180NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 22.6N 114.0W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT...100NE 100SE  70SW  90NW.
34 KT...220NE 220SE 150SW 160NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 28.3N 115.4W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 34.3N 117.7W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.4N 105.1W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PAPIN
 
 
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