ZCZC MIATCMEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM HILARY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092023
1500 UTC WED AUG 16 2023
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 102.6W AT 16/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......180NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 210SE 90SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 102.6W AT 16/1500Z
AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 102.0W
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 13.1N 104.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...240NE 120SE 60SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 14.1N 106.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...240NE 180SE 110SW 140NW.
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 15.4N 108.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...240NE 220SE 130SW 170NW.
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 16.7N 110.7W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...240NE 220SE 140SW 170NW.
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 18.5N 112.3W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...270NE 240SE 150SW 180NW.
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 20.4N 113.6W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...240NE 240SE 160SW 180NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 25.7N 114.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 31.5N 116.8W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.4N 102.6W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER BUCCI
NNNN