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Tropical Depression Eight-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP082023
500 PM HST Sun Aug 13 2023

The low pressure system that NHC has been monitoring over the far 
western portion of the east Pacific basin has become a tropical 
depression.  An ASCAT pass from several hours ago revealed that 
the system has a well-defined circulation and recent infrared 
satellite images indicate that deep convection has been persisting 
near and to the west of the center.  Based on the ASCAT data and 
Dvorak estimates of T1.5 and T2.0 from TAFB and SAB, respectively, 
the initial intensity is set at 30 kt.

The depression is moving west-northward at 12 kt.  A westward to 
west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days as 
the system remains steered by a mid-level ridge to its northeast 
and moves toward a weakness in that ridge.  Beyond a few days, a 
turn to the west is forecast as the weakening system moves in the 
low- to mid-level flow.  The models are in good agreement and show 
this system moving well to the south of the Hawaiian Islands.  This 
forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope.

The depression is in generally conducive conditions to strengthen 
during the next couple of days while it remains over warm waters 
and in a relatively moist and low wind shear environment.  Beyond 
that time, however, increasing shear, drier air, and slightly 
cooler waters should cause a slow weakening trend.  There is not a 
significant spread in the intensity models and none of them show 
this system reaching hurricane strength.  The NHC intensity 
forecast is in good agreement with the HCCA and IVCN models.

The depression should cross into the central Pacific basin by 1200 
UTC.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  14/0300Z 11.4N 138.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  14/1200Z 11.5N 140.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  15/0000Z 11.6N 142.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  15/1200Z 11.9N 145.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  16/0000Z 12.4N 147.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 60H  16/1200Z 13.0N 150.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  17/0000Z 13.6N 152.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  18/0000Z 13.6N 157.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  19/0000Z 12.9N 162.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
 
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