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HURRICANE FERNANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072023
0300 UTC TUE AUG 15 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 119.8W AT 15/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  960 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE  20SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT....... 80NE  60SE  60SW  80NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE  90SE  90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 119.8W AT 15/0300Z
AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 119.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 17.0N 121.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  50SE  50SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 17.4N 123.5W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  50SE  50SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 17.6N 126.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 35NE  20SE  20SW  35NW.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  50SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 17.8N 128.7W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 18.0N 131.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 18.1N 134.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 18.2N 141.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 18.0N 147.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 119.8W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PAPIN
 
 
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