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HURRICANE FERNANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072023
2100 UTC SUN AUG 13 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 116.5W AT 13/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT....... 25NE  25SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 50NE  50SE  20SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 116.5W AT 13/2100Z
AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 116.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 15.8N 117.6W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 10NE  10SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  30SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 16.2N 119.0W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  10SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 16.7N 120.6W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  10SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 17.3N 122.5W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 10NE  10SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  40SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 17.5N 124.9W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 17.7N 127.2W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  30SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 18.0N 132.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 18.0N 138.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 116.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
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