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TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072023
1500 UTC SUN AUG 13 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 115.9W AT 13/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 50NE  50SE  20SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  30SE  15SW  30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 115.9W AT 13/1500Z
AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 115.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 15.6N 117.2W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  30SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 16.0N 118.7W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 10NE   0SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 16.4N 120.4W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 10NE  10SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 16.9N 122.2W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 10NE  10SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  40SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 17.3N 124.3W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 17.5N 126.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 17.8N 132.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 18.0N 138.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N 115.9W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
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