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Tropical Storm Fernanda Discussion Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072023
1100 AM HST Wed Aug 16 2023
 
Fernanda's weakening trend appears to be continuing.  Deep
convection remains minimal, and is confined to a few cells over the
southwestern portion of the circulation while the system moves over
marginal SSTs and into a dry low- to mid-level air mass. There have
been no recent scatterometer overpasses from which to estimate
intensity.  Assuming a continued spin down of the circulation, the
advisory intensity is set to a somewhat uncertain 45 kt.
 
The cyclone has been moving just slightly south of due west or
260/12 kt.  A mid-level ridge is forecast to remain established to
the north of Fernanda through 72 hours.  This should maintain a
mostly westward track for the next few days.  There is little
change to the new official track forecast, which remains close to
the multi-model dynamical consensus.
 
Sea surface temperatures beneath the cyclone should gradually
decrease and the environmental air mass is expected to become even
drier over the next couple of days.  Therefore, continued weakening
is expected which should result in Fernanda degenerating into a
post-tropical cyclone in 12 hours and dissipating within 72 hours.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  16/2100Z 16.8N 127.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  17/0600Z 16.6N 130.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 24H  17/1800Z 16.6N 132.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  18/0600Z 16.7N 135.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  18/1800Z 16.7N 138.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  19/0600Z 16.7N 140.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  19/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 
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