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Hurricane Fernanda Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072023
1100 AM HST Mon Aug 14 2023

Fernanda has been maintaining a well-defined eye some 10 n mi in 
diameter with very cold surrounding convective cloud tops.  The 
upper-level outflow pattern remains well defined, particularly to 
the north.  Dvorak current intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB 
remain at 115 kt and objective ADT estimates from UW-CIMSS are also 
near that value.  Thus the intensity estimate is held at 115 kt, 
i.e. category 4 strength, for this advisory.

Although there have been some trochoidal wobbles in the motion, 
which is fairly common in intense hurricanes, the overall motion 
continues to be westward or slightly north of westward at a rather 
slow pace, 6 kt.  The mid-level ridge to the north of Fernanda is 
still rather weak due to the influence of a cutoff low near the 
California coast.  Global model predictions show the ridge becoming 
better established over the next several days, which should result 
in some increase in forward speed.  In 3-5 days, the shallower and 
weaker cyclone is likely to be carried on a westward track 
following the lower-level trade wind flow.  The official forecast 
track is basically an extension of the previous one and remains in 
good agreement with the simple and corrected dynamical model 
consensus solutions.

Although it is likely that Fernanda has reached its peak intensity, 
the hurricane should remain in a favorable SST and atmospheric 
thermodynamic environment until tonight so some additional 
short-term strengthening is possible.  After about 12 hours, the 
influences of drier air and cooler waters should begin to take their 
toll, so the official forecast shows a steady weakening trend in 1-4 
days.  This is in good agreement with the corrected consensus, HCCA, 
prediction.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  14/2100Z 15.9N 119.0W  115 KT 130 MPH
 12H  15/0600Z 16.5N 120.3W  120 KT 140 MPH
 24H  15/1800Z 17.2N 122.4W  105 KT 120 MPH
 36H  16/0600Z 17.5N 124.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  16/1800Z 17.7N 127.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 60H  17/0600Z 17.9N 130.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  17/1800Z 18.0N 133.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  18/1800Z 18.0N 139.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  19/1800Z 18.0N 145.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 
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