ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Tropical Depression Seven-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072023
300 PM MDT Sat Aug 12 2023
Satellite images indicate that the area of low pressure located
several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the
Baja California peninsula has attained sufficient organization to be
classified as a tropical depression. The last couple of microwave
satellite overpasses show a similar scenario, with cold
convective curved bands becoming better organized around a low-level
center, which appears to be located near the northern edge of the
convective cloud mass based on recent visible satellite images. The
latest TAFB subjective Dvorak estimate is T-2.0. Based on these
data, Invest 98E is upgraded to Tropical Depression Seven-E with an
initial intensity of 30 kt.
Weak mid-level ridging well to the north of the depression will
steer the cyclone toward the west-northwest at about 10 kt over the
next few days. Beyond 72 h, the ridge should strengthen enough to
cause a turn to the west with a slight increase in forward speed.
The NHC forecast track is in best agreement with the HCCA and TVCE
consensus models.
Environmental conditions are quite favorable for strengthening over
the next 48-60 h, with warm ocean temperatures, low vertical
wind shear and a relatively moist low to mid-level troposphere. The
NHC forecast peaks the system at 75 kt in 48-60 h, which is near
the middle of the intensity guidance. The ECMWF version of the
SHIPS RI index shows a 52 percent chance of a 65 kt increase in
winds over the next 72 h, so there is a chance the cyclone could
strengthen more than forecast. After that time, the cyclone is
forecast to move into a much drier environment along with slowly
decreasing sea-surface temperatures. There is high confidence on
significant weakening beyond 72 h due to the very dry airmass that
the cyclone will be moving into.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 12/2100Z 14.9N 113.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 13/0600Z 15.2N 114.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 13/1800Z 15.5N 115.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 14/0600Z 15.7N 117.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 14/1800Z 16.1N 119.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 15/0600Z 16.6N 120.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 15/1800Z 17.1N 122.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 16/1800Z 17.6N 127.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 17/1800Z 17.8N 133.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
$$
Forecaster Hagen/Berg
NNNN