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TROPICAL STORM DORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052023
0900 UTC TUE AUG 01 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 107.1W AT 01/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  14 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 107.1W AT 01/0900Z
AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 106.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 16.2N 109.2W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  20SE  10SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 16.1N 112.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 35NE  10SE   0SW  10NW.
34 KT... 40NE  20SE  20SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 15.8N 114.7W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE   0SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 20NE  10SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 15.3N 117.6W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE   5SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  30NW.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 14.7N 120.6W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 14.2N 123.7W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  40SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 13.3N 129.8W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 13.0N 135.5W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 107.1W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
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