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Hurricane Dora Discussion Number 34
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP052023
1100 AM HST Tue Aug 08 2023
Dora remains a powerful but small hurricane this morning, with a
persistent and relatively symmetric ring of deep convection
surrounding an eye that has recently become somewhat cloud-filled.
With a lack of discrete rain bands, a well-defined eye, and a
resistance to intensity change, Dora has displayed characteristics
of an annular hurricane for at least the last day or so, despite an
AHI (Annular Hurricane Index) score of zero this morning.
Regardless, utilizing subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates
of 6.0/115 kt, a 1618Z RCM-2 SAR pass, and 1431Z and 1436Z
microwave intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS' D-MINT, the initial
intensity is estimated to be 115 kt.
The initial motion vector for this advisory is 270/19 kt, as Dora
continues on its rapid westward track across the basin. A deep-layer
ridge moving westward in tandem with Dora had been supporting this
motion, and will generally continue to do so for the next day or
two. Despite the recent (somewhat unusual) south of west motion,
the forecast track anticipates that Dora will gradually gain
latitude as it reaches the southwestern periphery of the ridge. The
updated track forecast is nudged slightly northward from the
previous forecast, closer to the well-performing HAFS-A and TVCE
guidance. On the forecast track, Dora will pass well south of
Johnston Island Wednesday night, and into the western Pacific basin
on Friday.
Environmental conditions along the forecast track remain conducive
for maintaining a strong tropical cyclone over the next couple of
days, with relatively low vertical wind shear and sufficiently high
SSTs/OHC. Little change in intensity is indicated in the updated
forecast until the later forecast periods, when increasing
southwesterly vertical wind shear may lead to a fairly rapid demise
of the small cyclone's core. The updated intensity forecast lies
close to the IVCN consensus, with LGEM guidance influencing the
forecast in the later periods.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 08/2100Z 11.5N 158.1W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 11.6N 161.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 12.0N 164.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 10/0600Z 12.5N 168.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 10/1800Z 13.3N 172.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 11/0600Z 14.3N 175.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 11/1800Z 15.5N 178.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 12/1800Z 17.6N 175.6E 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 13/1800Z 19.0N 170.0E 45 KT 50 MPH
$$
Forecaster Birchard
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