ZCZC HFOTCDCP2 ALL
TTAA00 PHFO DDHHMM
Hurricane Dora Discussion Number 32
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP052023
1100 PM HST Mon Aug 07 2023
The satellite presentation of Dora remains impressive this evening,
with the tropical cyclone continuing to display annular
characteristics. The 15 nautical mile wide eye remains very warm and
surrounded by a very cold dense overcast. Microwave imagery from
earlier this evening showed a well defined eyewall structure in
place as well. The latest subjective Dvorak current intensity
estimates from PHFO and SAB were both 6.0 (115 kt), while the
objective Dvorak ADT and AiDT estimates from UW-CIMSS were 117 kt
each. As a result, the initial intensity has been held at 115 kt for
this advisory.
Dora is moving slightly south of due west at 20 kt. This general
motion is expected to continue during the next couple days as a deep
layer ridge builds north of the Hawaiian Islands. A turn to the
west- northwest is forecast beyond day 2 as the tropical cyclone
rounds the southwestern periphery of the deep layer subtropical
ridge north of Hawaii. On this forecast track, Dora is expected to
move into the western Pacific basin late Friday. The official
forecast track was nudged southward slightly during the next couple
days due to the recent southward jog that Dora has taken and to
bring it in better alignment with the latest consensus guidance.
Beyond 48 hours, the forecast track is virtually identical to the
previous advisory.
The environmental conditions along the forecast track of Dora appear
conducive for maintaining a very intense tropical cyclone during the
next several days, with the only potential negative factor being the
surrounding dry mid-level air around the system. Given the current
annular appearance of Dora, and the fact it has appeared annular for
several days now, the dry mid-level air surrounding the storm will
likely have a difficult time being entrained into the system.
Vertical wind shear will remain low during the next 3 days, before
increasing slightly by day 4, and more substantially by day 5.
Meanwhile sea surface temperatures will change little during the
next 24 to 36 hours, remaining around 27C. Beyond 36 hours, the SSTs
will gradually increase into the 28/29C range, with ocean heat
content values rising considerably from day 2 onward. The official
intensity forecast shows a slow and gradual decrease during the next
24 hours, with the intensity then held steady through day 3. There
is the potential that Dora could strengthen again in the 48 through
72 hour time frame due to the increase in SSTs and OHC. By day 4,
vertical wind shear should begin to impact the tropical cyclone,
with a more drastic decline in intensity expected by day 5 as shear
begins to overwhelm Dora. This forecast is weighted heavily toward
the intensity consensus guidance, which has been performing much
better than the dynamical models over the last couple days.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 08/0900Z 11.7N 154.2W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 11.6N 157.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 09/0600Z 11.6N 161.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 09/1800Z 11.9N 164.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 10/0600Z 12.5N 168.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
60H 10/1800Z 13.3N 172.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 11/0600Z 14.5N 175.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 12/0600Z 16.8N 178.4E 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 13/0600Z 18.5N 172.6E 60 KT 70 MPH
$$
Forecaster Jelsema
NNNN