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Hurricane Dora Discussion Number 31
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP052023
500 PM HST Mon Aug 07 2023
Dora remains on a westward track to pass far south of Hawaii, posing
no direct threat to the islands. Satellite data shows Dora has had
little structural change in the past 12 hours, remaining a compact
and symmetric system. A recent 2317Z AMSR2 pass shows solid deep
convection surrounding the eye. A blend of the latest subjective
Dvorak estimates from PHFO, SAB and JTWC, combined with the
objective estimates from UW-CIMSS support maintaining Dora at an
initial intensity of 115 kt.
The initial motion vector is 265/20 kt. As has been the case for
several days, the track guidance remains tightly clustered through
day 3 maintaining this general trajectory, with some limited model
spread in the track beyond. The forecast track closely follows the
previous advisory, with westward movement continuing through day 3,
and then a more west-northwest track as Dora approaches the date
line.
The current environment around Dora remains largely unchanged, with
the SST of 27 C and low shear. Little change in the environment
surrounding Dora is expected in the short term, so minor
fluctuations in intensity are still possible. Beyond day 3, as the
system begins to gain latitude, SST values are expected to increase
just a bit (28-29 C). However around the same time, shear is
expected to increase. With the general consensus of the
intensity models showing weakening during this time, it would
appear the shear will be a larger contributing factor to weakening
Dora.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 08/0300Z 12.0N 152.3W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 08/1200Z 12.0N 155.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 09/0000Z 12.0N 158.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 09/1200Z 12.3N 162.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 10/0000Z 12.8N 166.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 10/1200Z 13.3N 170.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 11/0000Z 14.2N 174.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 12/0000Z 16.3N 179.5E 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 13/0000Z 18.5N 173.5E 70 KT 80 MPH
$$
Forecaster M Ballard/Birchard
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