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Hurricane Dora Discussion Number  27
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP052023
500 PM HST Sun Aug 06 2023

Dora remains a well-organized, compact and symmetric hurricane, 
moving west in the central Pacific. A blend of the subjective dvorak 
estimates from PHFO, SAB and JTWC combined with the objective 
estimates lends an initial intensity remaining at 120 kt. A partial 
SAR pass this morning showed winds on the northeast side near 90 kt, 
but may have missed some higher winds. 

Additional fluctuations in intensity are expected over the next 
several days as Dora continues a generally westward track along 
27/28 C water, in a negligible wind shear environment. Satellite 
data 
shows significantly drier air several hundred miles north of Dora, 
which if it is ingested into Dora. A slightly more defined 
weakening trend is expected as some of that drier air is ingested 
into Dora in a couple days. The intensity forecast continues to 
follow the last few advisory packages for the first 36 hours, and 
remains a little higher than the model consensus. Starting with 48 
hours, the forecast intensity has been lowered a bit to keep it in 
line with the overall pattern of the intensity models. As the 
system moves into a more unfavorable shear environment beyond day 
4, additional weakening is likely. 

Very little change in the track forecast as models continue to be 
very tightly clustered through the week. Dora will move to the west 
along the southern edge of the ridge to the north, passing well 
south of Hawaii over the next several days.  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  07/0300Z 12.7N 144.0W  120 KT 140 MPH
 12H  07/1200Z 12.5N 147.0W  115 KT 130 MPH
 24H  08/0000Z 12.4N 150.8W  110 KT 125 MPH
 36H  08/1200Z 12.2N 154.5W  105 KT 120 MPH
 48H  09/0000Z 12.2N 158.4W   95 KT 110 MPH
 60H  09/1200Z 12.4N 162.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
 72H  10/0000Z 12.9N 165.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  11/0000Z 13.9N 173.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  12/0000Z 16.1N 179.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Wroe/M Ballard
 
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