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Hurricane Dora Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052023
1100 AM HST Fri Aug 04 2023
While there are occasional hints of an eye in visible and infrared
satellite imagery, the organization of Dora has decreased a little
since the last advisory. This is most notable in the eastern
semicircle, where the size of the central dense overcast has
diminished due to the effects of easterly shear. Satellite
intensity estimates are now in the 90-105 kt range, and the initial
intensity is reduced to a somewhat uncertain 95 kt.
This is starting to sound like a stuck record, but the initial
motion is again 265/16 kt. The track guidance and the track
forecast philosophy are again unchanged from the previous advisory,
as a deep-layer ridge to the north of the storm is forecast to build
westward and keep Dora on the same general trajectory for entire
forecast period. The new forecast track has noise-level
adjustments from the previous track.
The current shear should let up in the next 12-18 h, but until that
time Dora should continue to weaken some. After 18 h, the cyclone
should be over 26-27C sea surface temperatures, with the forecast
track taking Dora close to a patch of colder water between 72-96 h.
Based on these conditions and the intensity guidance, the new
intensity forecast calls for a little more weakening during the
first 24 h, followed by little change in strength from 24-72 h.
After 72 h, slight weakening is forecast due to the colder water
just to the north of the track. The new forecast is near the
intensity consensus through 72 h, then lies a little above the
consensus. It should be noted, though, that even while weakening
Dora is expected to remain a hurricane through the entire 5-day
forecast period.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 04/2100Z 13.8N 128.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 13.6N 130.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 05/1800Z 13.5N 134.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 06/0600Z 13.3N 137.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 06/1800Z 13.1N 141.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 07/0600Z 12.9N 144.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 07/1800Z 12.8N 148.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 08/1800Z 12.5N 156.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 09/1800Z 13.0N 164.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
$$
Forecaster Beven
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