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Hurricane Dora Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052023
1100 AM HST Thu Aug 03 2023
Microwave satellite data received between 12-14Z suggests that Dora
has been undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle. In addition, the
eye has been becoming more distinct during the past hour or two,
although it is not much larger than the pinhole eye seen last night.
Based on the satellite intensity estimates and the apparent
eyewall replacement, the initial intensity is set at 105 kt.
The initial motion remains 265/16 kt. As mentioned before, a
well-established low- to mid-level ridge north of Dora is expected
to maintain this general motion for the next several days. The
track guidance, while tightly clustered, has shifted a little to
the south from the previous advisory, and the forecast track is
also nudged southward. The new forecast track is close to the
various consensus models.
The latest shear estimates and forecasts suggest the expected
increase in easterly shear has not yet occurred. Based on this,
there is probably a 6-12 h window for Dora to re-intensify as the
eyewall replacement cycle ends, and the new intensity forecast
shows modest intensification during that time. After 12 h,
increased shear and slowly decreasing sea surface temperatures along
the forecast track should cause weakening through 48 h. After 48 h,
the shear is forecast to decrease while Dora is over water
temperatures of 26-27C. The intensity guidance during this time
shows a more gradual weakening than during the 12-48 h period, and
this part of the intensity forecast follows the overall trend of the
guidance. While the wind field of Dora may expand slightly due to
the eyewall replacement, it is expected to remain a compact system
that could be more prone than normal to rapid intensity
fluctuations.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 03/2100Z 14.4N 121.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 14.1N 124.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 13.8N 127.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 05/0600Z 13.5N 130.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 05/1800Z 13.3N 133.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 06/0600Z 13.0N 136.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 06/1800Z 12.8N 140.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 07/1800Z 12.5N 148.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 08/1800Z 12.5N 155.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
$$
Forecaster Beven
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