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Hurricane Dora Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052023
500 AM HST Thu Aug 03 2023
Dora's rapid intensification has ended during the past several
hours. While the eyewall cloud tops remain quite cold, the eye has
become cloud-filled and indistinct. The various subjective and
objective satellite intensity estimates have decreased a little, so
based on this the initial intensity is set at 110 kt.
The initial motion is now 265/16. As mentioned in the previous
forecast discussion, a well-established low- to mid-level ridge
north of Dora is expected to maintain this general motion for the
next several days. The track guidance remains tightly clustered in
both speed and direction, and the new forecast track, which is close
to the consensus models, has only minor adjustments from the
previous forecast.
Dora has likely peaked in intensity. While the storm is currently
over sea surface temperatures near 28C, the global model forecasts
indicate that increasing upper-level easterly winds should produce
shear during the next 36-48 h, and this is likely to cause problems
for the small inner core. Thus, the intensity forecast follows
the trend of the guidance in showing weakening during this time.
After 48 h, the shear is forecast to decrease while Dora is over
water temperatures of 26-27C. The intensity guidance during this
time shows a more gradual weakening than what is expected earlier
in the forecast period, and this part of the intensity forecast is
near or a little below the intensity consensus. Uncertainty
remains high with the intensity forecast since this compact system
could be more prone than normal to rapid intensity fluctuations.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 03/1500Z 14.7N 120.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 14.6N 122.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 04/1200Z 14.2N 125.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 05/0000Z 13.9N 128.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 05/1200Z 13.6N 131.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 06/0000Z 13.4N 134.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 06/1200Z 13.1N 138.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 07/1200Z 13.0N 145.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 08/1200Z 13.0N 153.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
$$
Forecaster Beven
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