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Hurricane Dora Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052023
1100 AM HST Wed Aug 02 2023
 
After the last advisory, we received a couple of late arriving 
microwave passes, first from GPM at 1339 UTC, and then F-17 SSMIS at 
1426 UTC. Both passes suggested that the inner core structure of 
Dora could be rearranging some with concentric bands embedded in the 
central dense overcast. On geostationary satellite, a tiny eye 
signature keeps coming and going, more recently trying to become 
better defined again as the surrounding cloud top temperatures have 
cooled. Subjective intensity estimates of Dora were both 90 kt from 
TAFB and SAB at 1800 UTC. Since that time, the eye has become more 
distinct again, so the intensity is nudged upward to 95 kt for this 
advisory. A helpful Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) pass received 
this morning showed that Dora remains a very small hurricane, with 
hurricane force winds only extending out 15 n mi from the center 
with a tiny 5 n mi radius of maximum wind.
 
Dora's motion is essentially unchanged from this morning, still just
south of due west at 260/14 kt. A deep-layer ridge located to the
north of the hurricane is forecast to move with it, resulting in a
continued south of due west track through the entire forecast
period. The latest track guidance remains tightly clustered near the
previous forecast track, and only slight adjustments were made for
this advisory, blending the TVCE and HCCA consensus aids.
 
While Dora appears to have paused its intensification this
afternoon, it might just be a short-term fluctuation, as the latest
few 1-min GOES-18 infrared images over Dora show the eye trying to
clear out again. While SHIPS-RII has decreased some, especially
compared to yesterday, DTOPS still indicates a 64 to 67 percent
chance of a 25-kt increase in intensity over the next 24 hours. So
the latest NHC intensity forecast will continue to show a 115 kt
peak intensity over the next day, higher than the consensus aids,
but still lower than both the HAFS-A/B runs. Thereafter, sea-surface
temperatures begin to markedly decrease under the hurricane as
easterly vertical wind shear is forecast to increase some. The
models respond to this less favorable environment by showing
weakening between 36-72 hours, and the latest official forecast
also shows this scenario. As mentioned previously, Dora's small
size could make it susceptible to rapid intensity changes, both up
or down, and the intensity forecast is of much lower confidence
than the track forecast.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/2100Z 15.4N 115.6W   95 KT 110 MPH
 12H  03/0600Z 15.2N 117.8W  105 KT 120 MPH
 24H  03/1800Z 14.9N 120.7W  115 KT 130 MPH
 36H  04/0600Z 14.5N 123.9W  105 KT 120 MPH
 48H  04/1800Z 14.1N 127.1W   95 KT 110 MPH
 60H  05/0600Z 13.7N 130.2W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  05/1800Z 13.3N 133.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  06/1800Z 12.6N 139.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  07/1800Z 12.5N 146.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Papin
 
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