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Hurricane Dora Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052023
500 AM HST Wed Aug 02 2023
Dora continues to rapidly intensify this morning. Overnight infrared
and first-light visible satellite imagery indicates that Dora has a
small but tight inner core, with a pinhole eye starting to emerge
from the central dense overcast cirrus. An AMSR2 microwave pass at
850 UTC showed this tiny core structure well, though some residual
dry air was still noted between the inner core and the curved
banding on Dora's west side. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates
were T5.0/90 kt from TAFB and T4.5/77 kt form SAB, while the latest
objective ADT estimate was 84 kt. Given the improvement in structure
on satellite imagery since 1200 UTC, the initial intensity this
advisory is set at 90 kt, on the higher end of those estimates.
Dora continues to move just south of due west, at about 260/14 kt.
The track reasoning has not changed much over the past day, with a
well-established deep-layer ridge to the north of Dora expected to
steer the system westward to west-southwestward for most of the
forecast period. The latest NHC track continues to blend the simple
and corrected consensus aids (TVCE and HCCA), and is nearly on top
of the previous forecast track, if just a bit faster at the end of
the forecast period.
Dora is in the middle of a rapid intensification (RI) cycle, and
most of the guidance suggests that RI should continue for the next
12-24 h or so. Thus, the intensity forecast in the short-term was
raised again, now showing a peak of 115 kt in 24 h. This intensity
is just a little higher than the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids, but
remains lower than the latest HAFS-A/B guidance. Afterwards, Dora's
small inner core could begin to undergo structural changes, such as
an eyewall replacement cycle. GFS-SHIPS guidance also shows easterly
shear increasing over the system as sea-surface temperatures
gradually decrease down to 27 C. A combo of these factors should
result in some gradual weakening, which is reflected in the latest
NHC intensity forecast beginning at 36 h, following the consensus
aids most closely. However, the small size of Dora could make the
system prone to more rapid intensity changes than reflected here.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 02/1500Z 15.6N 114.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 15.4N 116.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 03/1200Z 15.0N 119.3W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 04/0000Z 14.6N 122.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 04/1200Z 14.1N 125.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 05/0000Z 13.7N 128.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 05/1200Z 13.3N 131.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 06/1200Z 12.7N 138.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 07/1200Z 12.5N 145.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
$$
Forecaster Papin
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