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TROPICAL STORM CALVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032023
2100 UTC SUN JUL 16 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 136.3W AT 16/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  14 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 80NE  60SE  50SW  80NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE  90SE  90SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 136.3W AT 16/2100Z
AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 135.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 16.5N 138.8W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  40SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 17.1N 142.3W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  30SE  30SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 17.5N 145.9W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  20SE  20SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 18.1N 149.7W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  20SE  20SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 18.7N 153.4W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE   0SE   0SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 19.2N 157.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 20.0N 163.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 136.3W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER REINHART
 
 
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