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HURRICANE CALVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032023
1500 UTC THU JUL 13 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 117.1W AT 13/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT  11 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 60NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS..135NE  60SE  60SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 117.1W AT 13/1500Z
AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 116.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 13.0N 119.2W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 50NE  20SE  10SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  50SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 13.5N 122.1W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   5SE   5SW  15NW.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE  80SE  60SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 14.1N 124.9W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  10SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE  80SE  70SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 14.7N 127.8W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  10SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE  70SE  70SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 15.3N 130.8W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  70SE  60SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 16.0N 133.9W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  20SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  50SW  90NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 17.0N 140.4W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 17.9N 147.6W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.7N 117.1W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER KELLY/BERG
 
 
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